Premier League

We play every game still to come 5,000 times with our match model, from the table as it stands. These are the shares of those seasons that end with each club as champion, in the top places or going down.

The title race

Favourite

Arsenal

chance of winning the league

56%

1. 1Arsenal56%
2. 2Man City31%
3. 3Liverpool6%
4. 4Brighton3%
5. 5Chelsea3%

The race for the top 4

1. Arsenal97%
2. Man City92%
3. Liverpool63%
4. Brighton44%
5. Chelsea42%
6. Villa12%

The relegation fight

1. Hull50%
2. Ipswich50%
3. Coventry50%
4. Sunderland43%
5. Palace28%
6. Nottm Forest23%

Every club's chancesHide the full list

Season chances for every club, in table order

#	Club	Title	Top 4	Down
1	ARSArsenal	56%	97%	–
2	MCIManchester City	31%	92%	–
3	BHABrighton & Hove Albion	3%	44%	<1%
4	CHEChelsea	3%	42%	<1%
5	LIVLiverpool	6%	63%	<1%
6	BREBrentford	<1%	8%	3%
7	EVEEverton	–	4%	8%
8	BOUAFC Bournemouth	<1%	10%	4%
9	TOTTottenham Hotspur	<1%	7%	5%
10	AVLAston Villa	<1%	12%	2%
11	HULHull City	–	<1%	50%
12	LEELeeds United	–	4%	8%
13	NEWNewcastle United	<1%	9%	4%
14	IPSIpswich Town	–	<1%	50%
15	FULFulham	–	2%	16%
16	COVCoventry City	–	<1%	50%
17	MUNManchester United	<1%	5%	7%
18	CRYCrystal Palace	–	1%	28%
19	NFONottingham Forest	–	1%	23%
20	SUNSunderland	–	<1%	43%

Each simulated season also shifts every team's strength a little, because ratings are never certain and form changes. Updated after every round. How the odds are made