Ligue 1

We play every game still to come 5,000 times with our match model, from the table as it stands. These are the shares of those seasons that end with each club as champion, in the top places or going down.

The title race

Favourite

Paris Saint-Germain

chance of winning the league

84%

1. 1PSG84%
2. 2Lille4%
3. 3Monaco3%
4. 4Lyon3%
5. 5Marseille2%
6. 6Rennes1%

The race for the top 3

1. PSG97%
2. Lille43%
3. Monaco35%
4. Lyon31%
5. Marseille29%
6. Rennes21%

The relegation fight

1. Le Havre51%
2. Angers43%
3. Troyes34%
4. Le Mans33%
5. Auxerre18%
6. Lorient9%

Every club's chancesHide the full list

Season chances for every club, in table order

#	Club	Title	Top 3	Down
1	PSGParis Saint-Germain	84%	97%	–
2	LILLille	4%	43%	–
3	LYOLyon	3%	31%	–
4	PFCParis FC	1%	12%	1%
5	RENRennes	1%	21%	<1%
6	MARMarseille	2%	29%	<1%
7	ASMMonaco	3%	35%	–
8	NICNice	<1%	6%	2%
9	RCLLens	1%	17%	<1%
10	BRSBrest	–	3%	4%
11	LORLorient	–	1%	9%
12	TOUToulouse	–	2%	4%
13	STRStrasbourg	–	3%	4%
14	AUXAuxerre	–	<1%	18%
15	ANGAngers	–	<1%	43%
16	TROTroyes	–	–	34%
17	LMALe Mans	–	<1%	33%
18	LHALe Havre	–	<1%	51%

Each simulated season also shifts every team's strength a little, because ratings are never certain and form changes. Updated after every round. How the odds are made