Bundesliga

We play every game still to come 5,000 times with our match model, from the table as it stands. These are the shares of those seasons that end with each club as champion, in the top places or going down.

The title race

Favourite

Bayern München

chance of winning the league

84%

1. 1Bayern84%
2. 2Dortmund8%
3. 3Leverkusen4%
4. 4Leipzig3%
5. 5Stuttgart1%

The race for the top 4

1. Dortmund78%
2. Leverkusen62%
3. Leipzig58%
4. Stuttgart33%
5. Freiburg22%
6. Frankfurt12%

All but sure of the top 4: Bayern

The relegation fight

1. Paderborn35%
2. Gladbach32%
3. Schalke30%
4. Union Berlin23%
5. Hamburg20%
6. Augsburg16%

Every club's chancesHide the full list

Season chances for every club, in table order

#	Club	Title	Top 4	Down
1	FCBBayern München	84%	>99%	–
2	BVBBorussia Dortmund	8%	78%	–
3	FREFreiburg	<1%	22%	1%
4	RBLRB Leipzig	3%	58%	<1%
5	WERWerder Bremen	<1%	10%	4%
6	LERBayer Leverkusen	4%	62%	<1%
7	ELVElversberg	–	3%	12%
8	SGEEintracht Frankfurt	<1%	12%	3%
9	MAIMainz 05	<1%	6%	5%
10	AUGAugsburg	–	2%	16%
11	VFBVfB Stuttgart	1%	33%	1%
12	HOFHoffenheim	<1%	8%	5%
13	KOL1. FC Köln	–	2%	14%
14	PADPaderborn	–	1%	35%
15	HAMHamburger SV	–	2%	20%
16	FCUUnion Berlin	–	1%	23%
17	SCHSchalke 04	–	1%	30%
18	BMGBorussia Mönchengladbach	–	1%	32%

Each simulated season also shifts every team's strength a little, because ratings are never certain and form changes. Updated after every round. How the odds are made