Mainz 05 v Bayern München, Bundesliga
- Kick-off
- Venue
- MEWA ARENA
Our model, until the team news
Predicted line-ups
Mainz 05
3-5-2
Bayern München
4-2-3-1
1Schwolow- 48Potulski
- 21da Costa
- 3Gruber
- 8Nebel
10Amiri
6Sano
7Lee- 19Caci
23Becker
9Tietz
40Urbig
19Davies
2Upamecano
4Tah
27Laimer
45Pavlović
6Kimmich
44Stanišić- 42Karl
17Olise
9Kane
Bench
5Martel- 30Widmer
- 27Zentner
11Königsdörffer
17Hollerbach- 15Maloney
- 24Kawasaki
Bench
- 8Bischof
11Brown
3Kim
1Neuer- 21Ito
23Boey- 46Binder
Mainz 05
From 10 games this season; 3-5-2, the shape in 88% of them, weighted to recent games.
Out or doubtful
- MweneSuspended, expected back early November
- PoschSuspended, expected back early November
- KohrInjured, expected back early January
- RuoppiInjured, expected back early November
Injury and suspension news read for this game.
Bayern München
From 15 games this season; 4-2-3-1, the shape in 100% of them, weighted to recent games.
Close calls
- Tah or Kim
- Pavlović or Bischof
- Kimmich or Bischof
- Stanišić or Bischof
- Davies or Brown
Out or doubtful
- SaibariInjured, expected back early February
- GnabryInjured, expected back early January
- DíazInjured, expected back late November
- MusialaInjured, expected back late November
- NdiayeInjured, expected back mid November
Injury and suspension news read for this game.
Our guess from each side's line-ups this season, recent form, the opponent and the injury news. The confirmed line-ups replace it about an hour before kick-off. Photos: Nonametells / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Bryan Berlin / CC BY-SA 4.0 · RuinDig/Yuki Uchida / CC BY 4.0 · Silesia711 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Richard Mulder / CC BY-SA 3.0 · Werner100359 / CC0 · Lanthan2003 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Winfrey / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Werner100359 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Steffen Prößdorf / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Supporterhéninois / CC0
Last 5 games
Coming in form
Mainz 05
9th in the table
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- Goals
- 7–13
- xG for / against
- 8.8–7.5
- xG difference per game
- +0.26
Bayern München
1st in the table
- D
- W
- W
- D
- W
- Goals
- 15–6
- xG for / against
- 15.5–4.8
- xG difference per game
- +2.14
From our model
Our call
Our call
1–4
Frozen at kick-off, never changed afterwards. A model estimate, not betting advice.
- MAI 9%
- Draw 14%
- FCB 77%
Likeliest scores
0–3
8%
0–4
8%
1–3
8%
Even the likeliest score happens in only about 1 game in 8, so here are the top three.
- Mainz 05 create 2.15 xG a game lately; Bayern München allow 1.02
- Bayern München create 3.85 xG a game lately; Mainz 05 allow 1.85
- Last meeting: Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München (25 Apr 2026)
This season
Players to watch
Mainz 05
- Becker2 goals, 4 assists2 goals, 4 assists, 2.6 xG in 8 games
- Tietz5 goals5 goals, 0 assists, 4.6 xG in 8 games
Bayern München
- Kane4 goals, 6 assists4 goals, 6 assists, 6.2 xG in 8 games
- Olise6 goals, 3 assists6 goals, 3 assists, 4.9 xG in 8 games
Recent meetings
Head to head
These two have not met in the games we hold.