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Atlético Madrid v Barcelona, LaLiga

LaLiga · Matchday 12Preview
Atlético Madrid2nd in the table

Our call 1–2

Barcelona1st in the table
Kick-off
Venue
Riyadh Air Metropolitano
Instagram card

Our model, until the team news

Predicted line-ups

Atlético Madrid

4-4-2

Barcelona

4-2-3-1

  • Oblak
  • Grimaldo
  • Hancko
  • Pubill
  • Llorente
  • Baena
  • Barrios
  • Hjulmand
  • Giuliano
  • Julián Álvarez
  • David
  • Joan García
  • Cancelo
  • Cubarsí
  • Gerard Martín
  • Fariñas
  • Pedri
  • Rodri
  • Gordon
  • Fermín
  • Lamine Yamal
  • Raphinha

Bench

  • 7Lee
  • 11Lookman
  • 24Le Normand
  • 9Sørloth
  • 5Cardoso
  • 6Koke
  • 30Martínez

Bench

  • 14Adeyemi
  • 9Gabriel Jesus
  • 24Eric García
  • 21de Jong
  • 22Bernal
  • 15Christensen
  • 6Gavi

Atlético Madrid

From 15 games this season; 4-4-2, the shape in 52% of them, weighted to recent games.

Close calls

  • David or Lee

Out or doubtful

  • RomeroInjured, expected back late November

Injury and suspension news read for this game.

Barcelona

From 15 games this season; 4-2-3-1, the shape in 92% of them, weighted to recent games.

Close calls

  • Fariñas or Eric García

Out or doubtful

  • EspartInjured, expected back early January
  • OlmoInjured, expected back late November
  • KoundéInjured, expected back late November

Injury and suspension news read for this game.

Our guess from each side's line-ups this season, recent form, the opponent and the injury news. The confirmed line-ups replace it about an hour before kick-off. Photos: Антон Зайцев / CC BY-SA 3.0 · Bryan Berlin / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Carlo Bruil Fotografie / CC BY 2.0 · Werner100359 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Steffen Prößdorf / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Basara001 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Анна Нэсси / CC BY-SA 3.0 · Biso / CC BY 4.0 · Granada / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Unknown author Unknown author / CC BY 4.0

Last 5 games

Coming in form

Atlético Madrid

2nd in the table

  1. W
  2. D
  3. W
  4. W
  5. L
Goals
5–3
xG for / against
5.6–7.3
xG difference per game
−0.33

Barcelona

1st in the table

  1. W
  2. L
  3. L
  4. W
  5. W
Goals
17–9
xG for / against
11.9–8.2
xG difference per game
+0.74

From our model

Our call

Our call

1–2

Frozen at kick-off, never changed afterwards. A model estimate, not betting advice.

  • ATM 34%
  • Draw 23%
  • BAR 43%

Likeliest scores

  1. 1–1

    12%

  2. 1–2

    9%

  3. 2–1

    8%

Even the likeliest score happens in only about 1 game in 8, so here are the top three.

  • Barcelona's xG is down to 2.58 a game over their last 5, from 3.45 across the season
  • Barcelona have scored 18 from 12.9 xG in their last 5
  • Atlético Madrid have won 5 in a row
  • Barcelona create 2.58 xG a game lately; Atlético Madrid allow 1.10

This season

Players to watch

Atlético Madrid

Barcelona

Recent meetings

Head to head

These two have not met in the games we hold.