Analysis
Atlético's run is ahead of their chances
Atlético took 15 points from their last 5 games, from chances worth 8.8: +6.2 in 5 games.
Published by The90Pro · 4 min read
+6.2
Atlético, points minus xPts, last 5 games
15 points from 8.8 xPts in the last 5; +8.9 over the season, 11 games
Atlético's last 5 results read WWWWW. The chances in those games were worth 8.8 expected points, so Atlético are +6.2 against them in 5 games, and +8.9 over the season. The run has been better than the football underneath it.
| Game | Score | Result | xG for | xG against |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 H v Real Madrid | 2-1 | W | 2.4 | 0.3 |
| 2026-10-10 A v Deportivo Alavés | 2-1 | W | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| 2026-10-17 A v Espanyol | 1-0 | W | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2026-10-24 H v Deportivo A Coruña | 1-0 | W | 1.4 | 2.0 |
| 2026-10-31 A v Levante | 2-0 | W | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Last 5 games | 15 points | 8.8 xPts | – | – |
| Season (11 games) | 28 points | 19.1 xPts | – | – |
| Points minus xPts | 6.2 | – | – | – |
| Season points minus xPts | 8.9 | – | – | – |
The league picture
Expected points replay every game from its chances: each shot is a yes or no on its xG, and the chances of a win and a draw that come out give the points a side's football was worth. A gap between points and xPts usually comes from finishing, goalkeeping or the timing of goals, and over a season those gaps tend to close. Atlético sit in the "good, and rewarded" corner, with Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sociedad and others.
Hover or tap a crest for its numbers. Dashed lines: league average.
How they do it
Atlético have lined up in a 4-4-2 in 4 of their 11 LaLiga games; this is the eleven that has started there most, with each player's average match rating.
Their pass network from the 2-0 win at Levante on Saturday shows where each player took the ball and who found whom. The busiest link was Pubill to Hancko.
7.1OblakATM
7.4LlorenteATM
7.8GrimaldoATM
7.4HanckoATM
7.1PubillATM
7.3GiulianoATM- 7.3HjulmandATM
- 7.3BarriosATM
7.3LeeATM
7.5BaenaATM
6.6LookmanATM
Photos: Антон Зайцев / CC BY-SA 3.0 · Bryan Berlin / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Carlo Bruil Fotografie / CC BY 2.0 · Werner100359 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Steffen Prößdorf / CC BY-SA 4.0
Tap or hover a player to see who they passed with and how often.
Circles show passes made; lines, passes between the pair. Brighter and thicker means more. Attacking to the right. The full match
The players who drive it, and the number that matters for this story:
- 5goals
- 4goals
- 3goals
3goals
Left midfielderPhotos: Bryan Berlin / CC BY-SA 4.0
The trend
Over 5 games at a time, Atlético's points minus xPts is +6.2 now, up from +2.6 after their first 5; the low was +0.6 (MD 8 v Alavés). Barcelona, the line to compare with, are on +0.1; the league average is −0.1. Five games is a small window, and expected points swing on a few big chances.
Matchday along the bottom, up the side. Dashed line: league average. Tap the names to show or hide a line.
What to watch
Next for Atlético: at home to Barcelona on Sunday (the match page). On expected points, Barcelona are on 11.9 against Atlético's 8.80: the two are on the same side of the league average, so the game turns on who does it better. More analysis: Real Madrid v Racing: what happens when they're level; Barcelona: LaLiga's best side at set pieces.
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