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AnalysisSerie A

Lucky and unlucky

Serie A: who the table flatters after matchday 9

Lazio have +9.5 points more than their chances deserved; Fiorentina -7.7.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+9.5

Lazio, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Lazio+9.5
  2. Frosinone+7.3
  3. Como+4.6
  4. Cagliari+4.4
  5. Inter+3.7
  6. Roma+3.7
  7. Milan+2.5
  8. Torino+2.1
  9. Atalanta+2
  10. Genoa+0.9
  11. Lecce+0.5
  12. Napoli−2
  13. Parma−2
  14. Udinese−2.5
  15. Bologna−2.7
  16. Sassuolo−3
  17. Juventus−4.1
  18. Monza−6.8
  19. Venezia−7.2
  20. Fiorentina−7.7

In points.

Lazio are the biggest overachievers (25 points from 15.5 expected). Fiorentina have the hardest luck (5 from 12.7).

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