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AnalysisSerie A

Lucky and unlucky

Serie A: who the table flatters after matchday 10

Lazio have +11.1 points more than their chances deserved; Monza -7.9.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+11.1

Lazio, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Lazio+11.1
  2. Frosinone+8
  3. Como+4.9
  4. Milan+4.9
  5. Roma+4.7
  6. Cagliari+3.1
  7. Genoa+2.3
  8. Torino+1.6
  9. Inter+1.5
  10. Parma+0.9
  11. Lecce−0.6
  12. Atalanta−0.8
  13. Bologna−1.2
  14. Juventus−2.6
  15. Napoli−3
  16. Sassuolo−3.2
  17. Udinese−3.2
  18. Fiorentina−7.3
  19. Venezia−7.5
  20. Monza−7.9

In points.

Lazio are the biggest overachievers (28 points from 16.9 expected). Monza have the hardest luck (7 from 14.9).

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More from Serie A

9.2Daffara, best rating

Team of the week

Serie A team of matchday 10

The best-rated XI of matchday 10, led by Daffara (9.2).

−1.09Roma, change in xG difference a game

Analysis

Roma's chances have gone the wrong way

Roma's xG difference over their last 5 games is +0.36 a game, against +1.45 in the 5 before: a swing of −1.09.