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AnalysisSerie A

Analysis

Roma's chances have gone the wrong way

Roma's xG difference over their last 5 games is +0.36 a game, against +1.45 in the 5 before: a swing of −1.09.

Published by The90Pro · 4 min read

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−1.09

Roma, change in xG difference a game

+0.36 a game over the last 5, +1.45 over the 5 before; 10 games this season

Something has shifted for Roma over the last few weeks. Over their last 5 games they have made 2.03 xG a game and given up 1.67, +0.36 a game, after +1.45 (2.60 for, 1.15 against) in the 5 before. The results have gone DWDWW for 11 points, after 13 from the previous 5, and the chances moved the same way.

Roma: the last 10 games
Last 5 gamesThe 5 before
xG for a game2.02.6
xG against a game1.71.1
xG difference a game0.41.4
Change in xG difference a game-1.1–
Points1113
ResultsDWDWWWWWWD
Games this season10–

The league picture

xG difference is the value of the chances a team makes minus the ones it gives up. Over 5 games it moves before results do: a swing this size usually means a team is playing differently, not just finishing differently. Roma sit in the "open games" corner, with Atalanta, Bologna, Frosinone and others.

xG for and against a game, each team's last 5 games
↖ Few chances, many againstOpen games ↗xG against a game, last 5 () →
↙ Tight gamesMany chances, few against ↘xG for a game, last 5 () →

Hover or tap a crest for its numbers. Dashed lines: league average.

How they do it

Roma have lined up in a 3-4-2-1 in 7 of their 10 Serie A games; this is the eleven that has started there most, with each player's average match rating.

Their pass network from the 5-2 win at Udinese on Saturday shows where each player took the ball and who found whom. The busiest link was Wesley to Mora.

Usual XI: 3-4-2-1 in 7 of 10 games, season average ratings3-4-2-1
  • 7.3HermosoROM
  • 7.1N'DickaROM
  • 7.4WesleyROM
  • 7.7MalenROM
  • 7.1ManciniROM
  • 8.0DybalaROM
  • 7.6GolliniROM
  • 7.9LulliROM
  • 7.6KonéROM
  • 7.6CristanteROM
  • 7.3MoraROM

Photos: Bryan Berlin / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Sandro Halank / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Werner100359 / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Olga Shcherbytska / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Ago76, CC BY-SA 4.0

Pass network, 5-2 win at Udinese
33Mora34N'Dicka17Ghilardi45Cristante54Hermoso37de Roon37Molina39Wesley26Gollini34Soulé7Malen

Tap or hover a player to see who they passed with and how often.

Roma · Starting XI until the first substitution (58')Busiest link: Wesley and Mora, 28 passes.Centralisation index 0.06: Hermoso made 1.6× an even share of the passes.

Circles show passes made; lines, passes between the pair. Brighter and thicker means more. Attacking to the right. The full match

The players who drive it, and the number that matters for this story:

Key players, this season
  • MalenStriker8 goals in 9 games, 0.4 xA
    7.7xG
  • SouléAttacking midfielder3 goals in 10 games, 2.0 xA
    2.9xG
  • DybalaAttacking midfielder0 goals in 6 games, 3.4 xA
    2.0xG
  • MoraAttacking midfielder3 goals in 8 games, 1.1 xA
    2.0xG

Photos: Sandro Halank / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Original: BugWarp / Derivative work: Danuele / CC BY-SA 4.0 · Olga Shcherbytska / CC BY-SA 4.0

The trend

Over 5 games at a time, Roma's xG difference a game is +0.35 now, down from +1.44 after their first 5; the low was −0.13 (MD 9 v Cagliari). Inter, the line to compare with, are on +1.78; the league average is 0.00. Two windows of 5 games each are small samples; opponents matter as much as form over that stretch.

xG difference a game, rolling 5 games
-101235678910

Matchday along the bottom, up the side. Dashed line: league average. Tap the names to show or hide a line.

What to watch

Next for Roma: away to Man United on Tuesday, in the Champions League (the match page). More analysis: Inter have the best chance difference in Serie A.

New to a term? See the glossary.

More from Serie A

9.2Daffara, best rating

Team of the week

Serie A team of matchday 10

The best-rated XI of matchday 10, led by Daffara (9.2).