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AnalysisSerie A

Lucky and unlucky

Serie A: who the table flatters after matchday 8

Lazio have +9.3 points more than their chances deserved; Fiorentina -7.0.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+9.3

Lazio, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Lazio+9.3
  2. Frosinone+6.6
  3. Cagliari+5.4
  4. Como+3.8
  5. Milan+3.7
  6. Torino+2.7
  7. Inter+2.5
  8. Roma+2.5
  9. Atalanta+2
  10. Lecce+1
  11. Genoa−1
  12. Parma−1.9
  13. Udinese−2
  14. Juventus−2.5
  15. Sassuolo−2.8
  16. Napoli−3.2
  17. Bologna−4.2
  18. Monza−5.9
  19. Venezia−6.3
  20. Fiorentina−7

In points.

Lazio are the biggest overachievers (22 points from 12.7 expected). Fiorentina have the hardest luck (4 from 11.0).

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