Man City are 5.7 points ahead of their chances

After 8 games, Man City have 21 points and sit 1st. Replay every shot they took and faced with its xG, though, and the same chances were worth 15.3 points, a gap of +5.7 that is the largest in the league; next are Arsenal on +4.2. Results have run ahead of the chances: finishing, goalkeeping or the timing of goals has been worth more than the shots alone suggest.

The league picture

Expected points replay every game from its chances: each shot is a yes or no on its xG, and the chances of a win and a draw that come out give the points a side's football was worth. A gap between points and xPts usually comes from finishing, goalkeeping or the timing of goals, and over a season those gaps tend to close. Man City sit in the "good, and rewarded" corner, with Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool and others.

How they do it

Man City have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in 5 of their 8 Premier League games; this is the eleven that has started there most, with each player's average match rating.

Their pass network from the 1-2 defeat at Villa on Saturday shows where each player took the ball and who found whom. The busiest link was Dias to Fernández.

The trend

Over 5 games at a time, Man City's points minus xPts is +3.6 now, down from +5.7 after their first 5; the high was +6.8 (MD 7 v Ipswich). Arsenal, the line to compare with, are on +2.5; the league average is −0.1. 8 games is a small sample, and numbers like these settle down as the season goes on.

What to watch

Next for Man City: at home to Brighton on Saturday (the match page). On expected points, Brighton are on 14.1 against Man City's 15.3: the two are on the same side of the league average, so the game turns on who does it better.