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AnalysisPremier League

Lucky and unlucky

Premier League: who the table flatters after matchday 9

Arsenal have +6.0 points more than their chances deserved; Nottingham Forest -9.6.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+6.0

Arsenal, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Arsenal+6
  2. Brighton & Hove Albion+4.1
  3. Manchester City+3.6
  4. Chelsea+3.4
  5. Newcastle United+2.9
  6. Hull City+1.9
  7. Brentford+1.8
  8. Aston Villa+1.5
  9. Liverpool+1.2
  10. Everton+1.2
  11. Ipswich Town+0.8
  12. Coventry City+0.3
  13. Leeds United−0.5
  14. Crystal Palace−1.4
  15. Tottenham Hotspur−1.8
  16. AFC Bournemouth−3.5
  17. Fulham−4.1
  18. Manchester United−4.1
  19. Sunderland−7.3
  20. Nottingham Forest−9.6

In points.

Arsenal are the biggest overachievers (24 points from 18.0 expected). Nottingham Forest have the hardest luck (6 from 15.6).

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+5.7Man City, points minus expected points

Analysis

Man City are 5.7 points ahead of their chances

Man City have 21 points from 8 games, but their chances were worth 15.3 expected points: +5.7, the biggest gap in the Premier League.