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AnalysisPremier League

Lucky and unlucky

Premier League: who the table flatters after matchday 8

Manchester City have +5.7 points more than their chances deserved; Nottingham Forest -7.9.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+5.7

Manchester City, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Manchester City+5.7
  2. Arsenal+4.2
  3. Newcastle United+3.7
  4. Chelsea+2.9
  5. Liverpool+2.6
  6. Hull City+2
  7. Brighton & Hove Albion+1.9
  8. Aston Villa+1.5
  9. Ipswich Town+1.4
  10. Leeds United+0.2
  11. Everton+0.2
  12. Brentford−0.2
  13. Crystal Palace−1.3
  14. Tottenham Hotspur−1.8
  15. Coventry City−2.1
  16. Fulham−3.3
  17. Manchester United−3.7
  18. AFC Bournemouth−4.5
  19. Sunderland−5.1
  20. Nottingham Forest−7.9

In points.

Manchester City are the biggest overachievers (21 points from 15.3 expected). Nottingham Forest have the hardest luck (6 from 13.9).

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