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AnalysisPremier League

Lucky and unlucky

Premier League: who the table flatters after matchday 7

Manchester City have +7.8 points more than their chances deserved; Nottingham Forest -6.3.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+7.8

Manchester City, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Manchester City+7.8
  2. Chelsea+3.9
  3. Brighton & Hove Albion+3.6
  4. Arsenal+3.5
  5. Hull City+2.4
  6. Newcastle United+1.3
  7. Crystal Palace+0.9
  8. Liverpool+0.6
  9. Everton+0.6
  10. Ipswich Town+0.6
  11. Leeds United+0.2
  12. Brentford+0.1
  13. Aston Villa−0.9
  14. Coventry City−0.9
  15. Manchester United−3
  16. Tottenham Hotspur−3.2
  17. Sunderland−4.5
  18. Fulham−5
  19. AFC Bournemouth−5.4
  20. Nottingham Forest−6.3

In points.

Manchester City are the biggest overachievers (21 points from 13.2 expected). Nottingham Forest have the hardest luck (5 from 11.3).

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