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AnalysisLaLiga

Lucky and unlucky

LaLiga: who the table flatters after matchday 10

Real Betis have +7.5 points more than their chances deserved; Villarreal -6.4.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+7.5

Real Betis, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Real Betis+7.5
  2. Atlético Madrid+7
  3. Real Sociedad+5
  4. Sevilla+4.4
  5. Barcelona+2.3
  6. Getafe+1.5
  7. Real Madrid+1.1
  8. Celta Vigo−0.1
  9. Racing Santander−0.1
  10. Levante−0.6
  11. Deportivo A Coruña−2
  12. Rayo Vallecano−2
  13. Athletic Club−2.1
  14. Elche−2.3
  15. Deportivo Alavés−2.6
  16. Osasuna−3.4
  17. Málaga−3.5
  18. Espanyol−3.8
  19. Valencia−5.7
  20. Villarreal−6.4

In points.

Real Betis are the biggest overachievers (20 points from 12.5 expected). Villarreal have the hardest luck (12 from 18.4).

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