Lucky and unlucky
Bundesliga: who the table flatters after matchday 7
Borussia Dortmund have +4.2 points more than their chances deserved; Hoffenheim -3.7.
Published by The90Pro · 1 min read
+4.2
Borussia Dortmund, points above expected
Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.
Borussia Dortmund+4.2
Elversberg+3.2
Hamburger SV+2.8
Werder Bremen+2.1
Augsburg+1.9
Paderborn+1.5
Bayer Leverkusen+1.3
Schalke 04+0.6
Freiburg+0.4
Eintracht Frankfurt−0.3
Union Berlin−0.9
RB Leipzig−1.1
1. FC Köln−1.6
Bayern München−2.2
VfB Stuttgart−2.4
Mainz 05−2.9
Borussia Mönchengladbach−3.6
Hoffenheim−3.7
In points.
Borussia Dortmund are the biggest overachievers (17 points from 12.8 expected). Hoffenheim have the hardest luck (9 from 12.7).
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