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AnalysisBundesliga

Lucky and unlucky

Bundesliga: who the table flatters after matchday 8

Elversberg have +5.3 points more than their chances deserved; Hoffenheim -4.9.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+5.3

Elversberg, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Elversberg+5.3
  2. Borussia Dortmund+5.1
  3. Werder Bremen+3.7
  4. Hamburger SV+2.1
  5. Freiburg+2
  6. Paderborn+1.2
  7. Bayer Leverkusen+0.7
  8. Eintracht Frankfurt+0.6
  9. Schalke 04+0.6
  10. Augsburg+0.5
  11. Union Berlin−0.8
  12. RB Leipzig−1
  13. VfB Stuttgart−1.7
  14. 1. FC Köln−2.4
  15. Borussia Mönchengladbach−4
  16. Bayern München−4.1
  17. Mainz 05−4.6
  18. Hoffenheim−4.9

In points.

Elversberg are the biggest overachievers (13 points from 7.7 expected). Hoffenheim have the hardest luck (9 from 13.9).

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