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AnalysisBundesliga

Lucky and unlucky

Bundesliga: who the table flatters after matchday 6

Hamburger SV have +3.5 points more than their chances deserved; Borussia Mönchengladbach -4.5.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+3.5

Hamburger, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Hamburger SV+3.5
  2. Elversberg+3.4
  3. Borussia Dortmund+3.1
  4. Augsburg+2.7
  5. Bayer Leverkusen+1.3
  6. Werder Bremen+1.1
  7. Freiburg+0.6
  8. Eintracht Frankfurt+0.5
  9. Paderborn+0.5
  10. Schalke 04+0.4
  11. 1. FC Köln−0.6
  12. Union Berlin−1
  13. RB Leipzig−1.3
  14. VfB Stuttgart−1.7
  15. Mainz 05−2.1
  16. Bayern München−2.6
  17. Hoffenheim−3.8
  18. Borussia Mönchengladbach−4.5

In points.

Hamburger SV are the biggest overachievers (9 points from 5.5 expected). Borussia Mönchengladbach have the hardest luck (0 from 4.5).

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