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AnalysisSerie A

Lucky and unlucky

Serie A: who the table flatters after matchday 11

Lazio have +11.8 points more than their chances deserved; Monza -9.4.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+11.8

Lazio, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Lazio+11.8
  2. Milan+7.1
  3. Frosinone+5.6
  4. Cagliari+5.2
  5. Roma+5
  6. Como+4.7
  7. Inter+1.6
  8. Atalanta+1
  9. Torino+0.6
  10. Genoa+0.6
  11. Parma+0.5
  12. Lecce−0.2
  13. Bologna−0.9
  14. Juventus−3.3
  15. Sassuolo−3.3
  16. Udinese−4.2
  17. Napoli−4.5
  18. Venezia−6.1
  19. Fiorentina−7.4
  20. Monza−9.4

In points.

Lazio are the biggest overachievers (29 points from 17.2 expected). Monza have the hardest luck (7 from 16.4).

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