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AnalysisPremier League

Lucky and unlucky

Premier League: who the table flatters after matchday 10

Arsenal have +6.9 points more than their chances deserved; Nottingham Forest -7.5.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+6.9

Arsenal, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Arsenal+6.9
  2. Brighton & Hove Albion+4.7
  3. Chelsea+3.2
  4. Liverpool+2.6
  5. Everton+2.4
  6. Newcastle United+2.3
  7. Manchester City+2.1
  8. Aston Villa+1.4
  9. Hull City+1.4
  10. Brentford+1.3
  11. Ipswich Town+0.1
  12. Leeds United−0.1
  13. Coventry City−0.8
  14. Tottenham Hotspur−2.2
  15. AFC Bournemouth−2.6
  16. Crystal Palace−2.6
  17. Fulham−4
  18. Manchester United−4.9
  19. Sunderland−6.9
  20. Nottingham Forest−7.5

In points.

Arsenal are the biggest overachievers (27 points from 20.1 expected). Nottingham Forest have the hardest luck (9 from 16.5).

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