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AnalysisLigue 1

Lucky and unlucky

Ligue 1: who the table flatters after matchday 10

Lille have +7.7 points more than their chances deserved; Le Havre -9.3.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+7.7

Lille, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Lille+7.7
  2. Marseille+5.9
  3. Nice+4.8
  4. Monaco+3.5
  5. Rennes+2.1
  6. Paris FC+1.5
  7. Lyon+1.5
  8. Paris Saint-Germain+1
  9. Lorient+0.3
  10. Strasbourg+0.1
  11. Lens−0.7
  12. Auxerre−1.5
  13. Angers−2.3
  14. Le Mans−3
  15. Troyes−3.4
  16. Brest−3.5
  17. Toulouse−4.7
  18. Le Havre−9.3

In points.

Lille are the biggest overachievers (21 points from 13.3 expected). Le Havre have the hardest luck (2 from 11.3).

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