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AnalysisLaLiga

Lucky and unlucky

LaLiga: who the table flatters after matchday 12

Real Betis have +9.6 points more than their chances deserved; Villarreal -7.8.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+9.6

Real Betis, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Real Betis+9.6
  2. Atlético Madrid+7.3
  3. Real Sociedad+6.3
  4. Barcelona+4.1
  5. Sevilla+2.2
  6. Getafe+2.1
  7. Real Madrid+1.6
  8. Racing Santander+1.1
  9. Deportivo A Coruña−1
  10. Levante−1.3
  11. Rayo Vallecano−1.4
  12. Deportivo Alavés−2.1
  13. Espanyol−2.1
  14. Osasuna−2.9
  15. Athletic Club−3.3
  16. Celta Vigo−3.6
  17. Valencia−3.8
  18. Elche−4.8
  19. Málaga−5.6
  20. Villarreal−7.8

In points.

Real Betis are the biggest overachievers (26 points from 16.4 expected). Villarreal have the hardest luck (15 from 22.8).

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Vallés: +8.4 goals prevented

Vallés (Betis) faced shots worth 23.4 goals on target and conceded 15: +8.4, best among LaLiga keepers with 450+ minutes.