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AnalysisBundesliga

Lucky and unlucky

Bundesliga: who the table flatters after matchday 9

Borussia Dortmund have +6.5 points more than their chances deserved; Borussia Mönchengladbach -6.0.

Published by The90Pro · 1 min read

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+6.5

Borussia Dortmund, points above expected

Expected points replay every game with the same chances: each shot's xG decides how often it goes in. Teams above zero have more points than their chances earned, teams below have fewer.

Points minus expected points
  1. Borussia Dortmund+6.5
  2. Elversberg+4.2
  3. Hamburger SV+3.7
  4. Freiburg+2.2
  5. Bayer Leverkusen+2.2
  6. Werder Bremen+1.5
  7. RB Leipzig+0.7
  8. VfB Stuttgart+0.7
  9. Eintracht Frankfurt+0.7
  10. Paderborn+0.6
  11. Augsburg−0.9
  12. Union Berlin−0.9
  13. Schalke 04−1.3
  14. Hoffenheim−2.8
  15. 1. FC Köln−3.6
  16. Bayern München−3.7
  17. Mainz 05−4.6
  18. Borussia Mönchengladbach−6

In points.

Borussia Dortmund are the biggest overachievers (21 points from 14.5 expected). Borussia Mönchengladbach have the hardest luck (4 from 10.0).

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