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Football analysis built on real data

We turn match event data into previews, recaps and leaderboards for the big five leagues and Europe. Every number is checked before it goes up, and the glossary explains each one.

Premier League tableLatest matches

Replay · Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea

4/16

Saka 23'

Arsenal · Goal

0.58xG

Sample match. 16 shots: Arsenal 9, Chelsea 7.

Competitions
17
Games analysed
948
3,007 goals, 3.17 a game
Shots mapped
12,647
13.3 a game, every one with its xG
Expected goals logged
2,495
Goals ran +512 against xG

This week

Results and next up

All matches
  1. Full timeNice5Rennes2xG 3.4 – 2.6We missed it
  2. Full timeLe Havre1PSG5xG 2.0 – 4.3We called it
  3. Full timeRapid2Csikszereda0xG no dataWe called it
  4. Full timeElversberg4Mainz1xG 0.9 – 1.3We missed it
  5. Full timeLille1Lens0xG 1.6 – 0.2We missed it
  6. Full timeChelsea2Man United0xG 3.0 – 1.2We called it
  7. Full timeLevante0Atlético2xG 1.4 – 1.0We called it
  8. Full timeAugsburg1Freiburg2xG 1.2 – 1.2We called it
  9. Full timeBremen2Hoffenheim0xG 1.2 – 1.1We missed it
  10. Full timeLeverkusen2Stuttgart4xG 2.0 – 3.4We missed it
  11. Full timeSchalke0Leipzig2xG 0.8 – 3.7We called it
  12. Full timeMan City0Brighton1xG 1.9 – 1.0We missed it
  13. Full timeBournemouth2Leeds0xG 1.4 – 0.7We called it
  14. Full timeBrentford2Nottm Forest0xG 0.5 – 0.8We called it
  15. Full timeRayo3Celta0xG 1.1 – 1.2We called it
  16. Full timePetrolul1CFR Cluj1xG no dataWe missed it
  17. Full timeUdinese2Roma5xG 1.8 – 2.8We called it
  18. Full timeBayern2Dortmund2xG 4.4 – 0.6We missed it
  19. Full timeMilan3Inter1xG 0.7 – 1.8We missed it
  20. Full timeBarcelona6Alavés1xG 3.2 – 0.6We called it
  21. Full timeComo1Venezia0xG 1.6 – 0.2We called it
  22. Full timeGetafe3Sevilla1xG 1.6 – 0.8We missed it
  23. Full timeLazio2Cagliari1xG 1.0 – 1.0We called it
  24. Full timeFrosinone2Torino0xG 1.9 – 0.7We called it
  25. Full timeRacing0Real Madrid3xG 1.1 – 3.5We called it
  26. Full timeU Craiova2Botoșani1xG no dataWe called it
  27. Full timeParis FC3Monaco1xG 2.0 – 0.7We called it
  28. Full timeLyon2Angers0xG 2.1 – 0.4We called it
  29. Full timeLiverpool0Arsenal1xG 1.1 – 1.0We called it
  30. Full timeDinamo2UTA Arad0xG no dataWe called it
  31. Full timeJuventus2Napoli0xG 0.8 – 0.5We called it
  32. Full timeMarseille2Toulouse0xG 1.1 – 1.6We called it
  33. Full timeAthletic2Sociedad1xG 2.9 – 1.4We called it
  34. Full timeVoluntari1Farul2xG no dataWe called it
  35. Full timeU Cluj1FCSB0xG no dataWe called it
  36. Full timeNewcastle0Everton1xG 1.5 – 2.3We missed it
  37. Full timeShakhtar0Sporting1xG 2.0 – 1.3We missed it
  38. PostponedAnaitasuna FTAlavésDraw –
  39. PostponedPamplonaEibarDraw –
  40. Full timeBarcelona3Villa0xG 2.0 – 0.7We called it
  41. Full timeVillarreal0PSG6xG 0.7 – 2.7We called it
  42. Full timeRennes0Olympiacos0xG 0.5 – 0.9We missed it
  43. Full timeFenerbahçe3Liverpool2xG 1.8 – 1.8We missed it
  44. Full timeAEK Athens2Real Madrid3xG 0.9 – 3.3We called it
  45. PostponedPortugaleteReal UniónDraw –
  46. PostponedSD AmorebietaLogroñésDraw –
  47. PostponedDeportivaCartagenaDraw –
  48. PostponedReusBarakaldoDraw –
  49. Full timeDortmund2Betis1xG 2.7 – 0.8We called it
  50. Full timeSparta Prague1Bournemouth3xG 2.1 – 2.2We called it
  51. Full timeTrabzonspor0Freiburg1xG 1.7 – 1.0We called it
  52. Full timeNEC3Omonia1xG 1.5 – 0.7We called it
  53. Full timeMjällby2Borac0xG 1.7 – 1.5We called it
  54. Full timeSint-Truiden1Brann1xG 1.1 – 0.6We missed it
  55. Full timeAZ1Juventus2xG 2.1 – 0.6We called it
  56. Full timeSunderland0Dinamo Zagreb2xG 1.7 – 1.3We missed it
  57. Full timeMonaco2Nordsjælland0xG 2.5 – 0.1We called it
  58. Full timePanathinaikos2CSKA Sofia1xG 2.6 – 1.1We called it
  59. Full timeCelta1Union SG2xG 1.0 – 2.0We missed it
  60. Full timeU Craiova2Egnatia0xG 2.3 – 0.4We called it
  61. Now
  62. PreviewUTA Arad45%Petrolul26%Draw 29%Our call 1–0
  63. PreviewArgeș Pitesti18%Dinamo52%Draw 30%Our call 0–1
  64. PreviewEverton58%Coventry18%Draw 24%Our call 2–1
  65. PreviewLeeds40%Tottenham34%Draw 26%Our call 1–0
  66. PreviewCsikszereda11%U Cluj70%Draw 19%Our call 0–3
  67. PreviewCagliari41%Frosinone34%Draw 25%Our call 2–1
  68. PreviewDortmund83%Elversberg6%Draw 11%Our call 3–0
  69. PreviewMainz9%Bayern77%Draw 14%Our call 1–4
  70. PreviewLeipzig75%Augsburg10%Draw 15%Our call 2–1
  71. PreviewArsenal90%Hull2%Draw 8%Our call 3–0
  72. PreviewFarul37%Rapid38%Draw 25%Our call 1–2
  73. PreviewStuttgart71%Bremen12%Draw 17%Our call 2–1
  74. PreviewNottm Forest14%Man City65%Draw 21%Our call 0–2
  75. PreviewAuxerre33%Paris FC40%Draw 27%Our call 1–2
  76. PreviewFCSB59%Corvinul17%Draw 24%Our call 2–0
  77. PreviewRoma75%Sassuolo9%Draw 16%Our call 3–0
  78. PreviewPSG94%Troyes1%Draw 5%Our call 5–0
  79. PreviewNapoli59%Lazio17%Draw 24%Our call 2–1
  80. PreviewRennes39%Lille34%Draw 27%Our call 2–1
  81. PreviewBrighton58%Brentford20%Draw 22%Our call 2–1
  82. PreviewGenoa18%Milan57%Draw 25%Our call 0–1
  83. PreviewIpswich22%Bournemouth56%Draw 22%Our call 0–2
  84. PreviewKöln20%Leverkusen58%Draw 22%Our call 1–2
  85. PreviewBrest32%Lyon42%Draw 26%Our call 0–1
  86. PreviewAngers27%Nice47%Draw 26%Our call 1–2
  87. PreviewFreiburg58%Union Berlin19%Draw 23%Our call 2–0
  88. PreviewInter64%Como16%Draw 20%Our call 2–1
  89. PreviewCFR Cluj30%U Craiova43%Draw 27%Our call 1–2
  90. PreviewLens44%Marseille31%Draw 25%Our call 2–1
  91. PreviewFiorentina25%Juventus48%Draw 27%Our call 1–2
  92. PreviewTrival8%Leganés79%Draw 13%Our call 0–2
  93. PreviewMijas-Las47%Real Jaén29%Draw 24%Our call 2–1

Times in London time. Chances from our model before kick-off. Live scores refresh on their own.

Latest analysis

Read the numbers

All analysis
Points above or below their chancesTop and bottom five
  1. ARS+6
  2. BHA+4.1
  3. MCI+3.6
  4. CHE+3.4
  5. NEW+2.9
  6. BOU−3.5
  7. FUL−4.1
  8. MUN−4.1
  9. SUN−7.3
  10. NFO−9.6

Lucky and unlucky

Premier League: who the table flatters after matchday 9

Arsenal have +6.0 points more than their chances deserved; Nottingham Forest -9.6.

Read
  • 9.0Verbruggen
  • 8.2Robertson
  • 9.1van Hecke
  • 8.2van de Ven
  • 8.4Acheampong
  • 8.9Lavia
  • 8.6Palmer
  • 8.6Enciso
  • 8.4Rogers
  • 8.4McBurnie
  • 8.1Estêvão

Team of the week

Premier League team of matchday 9

The best-rated XI of matchday 9, led by van Hecke (9.1).

Read

Prediction record · this season

Prediction record

61%

of results called before kick-off, across 113 games.

Our model
61%
“Home team wins” every time
51%
  • 18 games61%Conference League: 11 of 18 results called.
  • 18 games44%Europa League: 8 of 18 results called.
  • 18 games67%Champions League: 12 of 18 results called.
  • 10 games50%Premier League: 5 of 10 results called.
  • 10 games70%LaLiga: 7 of 10 results called.
  • 12 games75%Serie A: 9 of 12 results called.
  • 9 games67%Ligue 1: 6 of 9 results called.
  • 8 games75%SuperLiga: 6 of 8 results called.
  • 9 games44%Bundesliga: 4 of 9 results called.
  • 1 game100%EFL Cup: 1 of 1 results called.

14 exact scores. Every call is frozen at kick-off and kept on the record, misses included.

See every call
  1. FRO 5–1 LEC, we said 3–1
  2. FIO 2–2 ATA, we said 2–1
  3. EVE 3–1 NEW, we said 2–1
  4. NIC 5–2 REN, we said 1–1
  5. LHA 1–5 PSG, we said 1–3
  6. RAP 2–0 CSI, we said 3–0
  7. ELV 4–1 MAI, we said 1–3
  8. VIL 0–1 ESP, we said 3–1
  9. LIL 1–0 RCL, we said 1–1
  10. CHE 2–0 MUN, we said 2–1
  11. LEV 0–2 ATM, we said 1–3
  12. COI 2–0 ARG, we said 2–0
  13. BOL 2–1 MON, we said 2–1
  14. WER 2–0 HOF, we said 1–3
  15. SCH 0–2 RBL, we said 1–2
  16. BMG 0–0 PAD, we said 2–1
  17. LER 2–4 VFB, we said 3–1
  18. AUG 1–2 FRE, we said 1–2
  19. MCI 0–1 BHA, we said 3–1
  20. HUL 2–2 IPS, we said 2–1
  21. COV 3–1 SUN, we said 1–2
  22. BRE 2–0 NFO, we said 2–1
  23. BOU 2–0 LEE, we said 2–1
  24. RAY 3–0 CEL, we said 2–1
  25. PER 1–1 CCL, we said 2–1
  26. UDI 2–5 ROM, we said 1–3
  27. TOT 2–0 CRY, we said 2–1
  28. BET 2–1 MAL, we said 3–1
  29. FCB 2–2 BVB, we said 3–1
  30. MIL 3–1 INT, we said 1–2
  31. TRO 2–0 LMA, we said 2–1
  32. AVL 1–1 FUL, we said 2–1
  33. BAR 6–1 ALA, we said 3–0
  34. COM 1–0 VEN, we said 2–0
  35. OTE 1–1 SEP, we said 1–0
  36. GET 3–1 SEV, we said 1–1
  37. LAZ 2–1 CAG, we said 2–0
  38. FRO 2–0 TOR, we said 2–1
  39. STR 5–1 AUX, we said 2–1
  40. FCU 1–1 KOL, we said 1–1
  41. RAC 0–3 RMA, we said 1–3
  42. UCV 2–1 BOT, we said 2–0
  43. PFC 3–1 ASM, we said 2–1
  44. LYO 2–0 ANG, we said 2–0
  45. LIV 0–1 ARS, we said 1–2
  46. SGE 3–1 HAM, we said 2–1
  47. LEC 1–2 GEN, we said 0–1
  48. ELC 0–1 VAL, we said 1–0
  49. DIA 2–0 UAR, we said 2–0
  50. JUV 2–0 NAP, we said 1–0
  51. MAR 2–0 TOU, we said 2–1
  52. ATH 2–1 RSO, we said 2–1
  53. VOL 1–2 FAR, we said 1–2
  54. SAS 2–4 FIO, we said 1–2
  55. UCJ 1–0 FCS, we said 2–1
  56. ATA 0–3 PAR, we said 2–0
  57. LOR 0–2 BRS, we said 1–0
  58. NEW 0–1 EVE, we said 2–1
  59. DEP 2–1 OSA, we said 1–0
  60. SHA 0–1 SPO, we said 1–0
  61. GAL 2–0 VFB, we said 1–2
  62. VIL 0–6 PSG, we said 1–2
  63. MUN 3–2 ROM, we said 2–1
  64. LAS 4–0 SLO, we said 3–1
  65. FEY 0–3 INT, we said 0–2
  66. BOD 0–0 LIL, we said 2–1
  67. BAR 3–0 AVL, we said 3–1
  68. ATM 0–2 FCB, we said 1–2
  69. REN 0–0 OLY, we said 0–1
  70. FEN 3–2 LIV, we said 1–2
  71. AAT 2–3 RMA, we said 1–2
  72. VIK 4–1 SAB, we said 4–1
  73. SLA 1–2 ARS, we said 0–2
  74. RBL 2–3 MCI, we said 1–2
  75. PEI 1–2 CLU, we said 2–1
  76. RCL 1–9 COM, we said 2–1
  77. POR 4–1 NAP, we said 2–1
  78. BVB 2–1 BET, we said 2–1
  79. SPA 1–3 BOU, we said 1–2
  80. RSO 1–1 LYO, we said 2–1
  81. NNI 3–1 OMO, we said 2–1
  82. MIL 0–2 FER, we said 2–1
  83. LIE 0–1 PLZ, we said 2–1
  84. LSO 1–0 JAG, we said 1–0
  85. CRY 1–1 HOF, we said 2–1
  86. AND 2–0 SAL, we said 2–1
  87. TRA 0–1 FRE, we said 1–2
  88. THU 3–1 HEA, we said 2–1
  89. MJA 2–0 BOR, we said 2–0
  90. LIN 1–0 HAJ, we said 0–3
  91. KUP 0–0 GNT, we said 1–2
  92. CRV 2–1 IES, we said 2–0
  93. MID 1–6 AJA, we said 2–1
  94. ATA 1–1 KAI, we said 4–0
  95. AGF 0–0 BRA, we said 1–2
  96. TOE 3–2 ARA, we said 2–1
  97. SUN 0–2 DIN, we said 2–1
  98. STU 2–3 NCE, we said 1–0
  99. HAP 0–2 OCR, we said 1–0
  100. CET 3–2 BES, we said 2–1
  101. CEL 1–2 UNI, we said 2–1
  102. BEN 3–1 LEH, we said 3–0
  103. LER 0–1 MAR, we said 2–0
  104. AAL 1–2 JUV, we said 1–2
  105. UCV 2–0 EGN, we said 2–0
  106. SIN 1–1 BRN, we said 2–1
  107. RIG 1–1 JAB, we said 1–0
  108. PAN 2–1 CSK, we said 2–0
  109. ASM 2–0 NOR, we said 3–0
  110. LUG 3–0 KAU, we said 5–0
  111. GET 0–1 BHA, we said 0–2
  112. TWE 3–1 PAF, we said 3–0
  113. COP 2–1 IBE, we said 2–0
Result calledExact scoreMissedOne dot per game, oldest first

Every league, this season

Top of the charts

Full leaderboards

Goals

Penalties included

  1. 1RaphinhaBarcelona · 1.87 per 9015
  2. 2MbappéReal Madrid · 1.10 per 9012
  3. 3Lamine YamalBarcelona · 0.99 per 9010
  4. 4FüllkrugBremen · 1.23 per 909
  5. 5VarelaMonza · 1.07 per 909

Expected goals

Quality of the chances taken

  1. 1MbappéReal Madrid · 1.22 per 9013.4
  2. 2RaphinhaBarcelona · 1.36 per 9010.9
  3. 3Lamine YamalBarcelona · 0.77 per 907.8
  4. 4MalenRoma · 1.21 per 907.7
  5. 5BudimirOsasuna · 0.75 per 907.1

Match of the week

Every match, read properly

Every game we cover gets its own page: the shot map, how the xG built up, who was on top, the line-ups with ratings and the passing between players. This is one of them, live from our data.

Open the match page
Lens

1–9

xG 0.77 – 4.27

Como

← COM attack

RCL attack →

Douvikas 7′Como · Goal · From a corner · Right foot0.88xGOT0.78xG
  • Goal
  • Saved
  • Missed or woodwork
  • Blocked
  • Bigger = higher xG

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